The Ukrainian-Russian war and food security (wheat model)
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2023
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Oum El Bouaghi
Abstract
The Russo-Ukrainian war caused significant price fluctuations in agricultural
markets. For wheat, price levels and price volatility reached their highest levels. Both have
declined to pre-war levels over the past six months, volatility remains high compared to
historical levels, indicating continued significant market uncertainty, creating continued
vulnerability to global food security. Before 2022, volatility as measured by implied
volatilities in the wheat futures market had risen and remained high shown by the gray bands.
Markets then remained relatively calm until the recent rally following the Russian invasion of
Ukraine in February 2022. Extreme volatility continues due to market uncertainty over the war
and the relative tightness in inventory levels, which offer little protection against unexpected
production shortfalls.
Description
Keywords
War; Conflict; Ukraine; Russia; food security; Export restrictions; Food supply